KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

43%

29%

26%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.3¢Risks 29.25u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.75u · EPS −70.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	30.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	20.7%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.0%	33.0%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	11.5%	4.7%	0.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	31.0%	12.8%	5.1%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	20.5%	18.9%	5.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.9%	11.9%	1.7%	—	7.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	14.3%	10.1%	4.1%	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	3.8%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	5.7%	8.0%	3.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	7.5%	1.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	1.9%	4.6%	3.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	0.9%	7.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	2.7%	4.9%	3.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.8%	12.4%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.0%	11.8%	1.6%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	4.5%	10.1%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	4.0%	10.4%	1.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	4.0%	7.1%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.4%	7.2%	0.5%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	4.8%	3.3%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.9%	3.3%	1.0%	10.0%	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.8%	2.8%	0.9%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.3%	2.4%	0.6%	7.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.1%	2.0%	0.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.5%	1.3%	0.4%	12.2%	3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	1.5%	0.1%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	75.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	73.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	71.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	70.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	72.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	68.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗