KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

43%

29%

26%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.3¢Risks 29.25u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.75u · EPS −70.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	40.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	38.1%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	38.1%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	38.1%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	38.1%	15.9%	45.2%	48.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:21+00:00	38.1%	15.9%	45.2%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	38.1%	3.4%	28.6%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	38.1%	3.4%	28.6%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	38.1%	3.4%	28.6%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	41.8%	3.4%	28.6%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	42.6%	3.4%	28.8%	26.2%	55.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	75.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	73.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	71.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	70.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	72.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	68.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗