KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.65u · EPS −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	9.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.0%	17.1%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	4.2%	1.4%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	14.8%	4.6%	1.5%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.1%	7.3%	1.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.8%	3.8%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.5%	2.8%	0.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.2%	1.9%	0.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.7%	0.2%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	0.9%	0.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	0.8%	0.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	2.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	2.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.6%	1.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	1.9%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	1.3%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	71.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	4%	69.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗