KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.65u · EPS −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:32+00:00	37.4%	7.7%	19.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	37.4%	7.7%	19.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	37.4%	7.7%	19.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	37.4%	7.7%	19.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	13.4%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	13.4%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	13.4%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	37.4%	3.7%	13.4%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	34.8%	3.7%	13.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	13.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:32+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	13.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	13.5%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	34.8%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	2.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	16.3%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	16.3%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	33.5%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	9.1%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	29.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	19.3%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	38.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	19.3%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	38.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	19.3%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	38.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	19.3%	4.3%	23.5%	30.1%	38.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:21+00:00	19.3%	4.3%	23.5%	13.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	19.3%	0.3%	11.1%	13.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	19.3%	0.3%	11.1%	13.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	19.3%	0.3%	11.1%	13.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	22.0%	0.3%	11.1%	13.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	11.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	11.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	11.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	11.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	8.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	8.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	22.9%	0.3%	8.5%	13.7%	38.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	16.3%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	16.3%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	16.3%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	5.9%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	8.5%	7.2%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	8.5%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	8.5%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	8.5%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	8.5%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	8.5%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	18.3%	0.4%	5.4%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	5.4%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	5.4%	9.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	2.8%	0.8%	5.4%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	2.8%	0.8%	5.4%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	5.4%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	5.4%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	4.2%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	4.2%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	4.2%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	4.2%	9.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	18.8%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	4.7%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	16.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	16.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	16.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	16.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	16.9%	0.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	71.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	4%	69.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗