KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

62%

51%

33%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.60u · EPS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	0.1%	48.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	29.2%	57.7%	0.1%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	19.4%	59.4%	31.7%	—	26.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	1.8%	56.1%	9.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	61.5%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	24.8%	44.4%	28.1%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	41.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	19.5%	43.4%	19.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	23.3%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	48.2%	55.2%	14.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	46.4%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	41.8%	57.3%	8.3%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	66.5%	57.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	54.9%	51.0%	11.1%	75.3%	30.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	52.0%	—	—	27.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	78.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	78.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	74.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	72.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗