KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

62%

51%

33%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.60u · EPS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:50+00:00	88.5%	31.8%	86.4%	58.6%	56.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	88.5%	31.8%	87.6%	58.6%	56.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	88.5%	31.8%	87.6%	58.6%	56.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	88.5%	31.8%	87.6%	58.6%	56.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	84.1%	31.8%	87.6%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	84.1%	31.8%	87.6%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	84.1%	31.8%	87.6%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	84.1%	31.8%	87.6%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	84.1%	31.8%	87.6%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	84.1%	28.5%	79.2%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	84.1%	28.5%	79.2%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	84.1%	28.5%	79.2%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	78.7%	28.5%	79.2%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	78.7%	28.7%	79.2%	46.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	77.0%	25.4%	69.6%	36.9%	15.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	77.0%	25.4%	76.0%	36.9%	15.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	77.0%	25.4%	76.0%	36.9%	15.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	77.0%	25.4%	76.0%	36.9%	15.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	77.0%	25.4%	76.0%	36.9%	15.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	77.3%	25.4%	76.0%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	77.3%	25.4%	76.0%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	77.3%	25.4%	76.0%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	77.3%	25.4%	76.0%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	77.3%	25.2%	70.4%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	77.3%	25.2%	70.4%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	77.3%	25.2%	70.4%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	77.3%	25.2%	70.4%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	67.9%	25.2%	70.4%	31.4%	45.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	67.2%	25.8%	75.2%	32.0%	41.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	67.2%	25.8%	80.3%	32.0%	41.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	67.2%	25.8%	80.3%	32.0%	41.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	67.2%	25.8%	80.3%	32.0%	41.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	75.7%	25.8%	80.3%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	75.7%	25.8%	80.3%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	75.7%	25.8%	80.3%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	75.7%	25.8%	80.3%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	75.7%	25.8%	80.3%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	75.7%	26.1%	88.6%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	75.7%	26.1%	88.6%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	75.7%	26.1%	88.6%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	69.2%	26.1%	88.6%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	69.2%	25.9%	88.7%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	88.7%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	88.7%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	88.7%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	79.8%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	79.8%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	69.2%	27.1%	79.8%	45.2%	62.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	79.8%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	79.8%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	79.8%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	79.8%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	79.8%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	74.4%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	76.6%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	79.7%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	84.9%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	61.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	84.9%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	61.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	84.9%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	61.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	84.9%	27.1%	87.1%	36.7%	61.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	84.9%	33.1%	87.7%	50.9%	61.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	84.9%	33.1%	87.7%	50.9%	61.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	84.9%	33.1%	87.7%	50.9%	61.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	84.9%	33.1%	87.7%	50.9%	61.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:16+00:00	85.0%	33.1%	87.7%	50.9%	61.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	78.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	78.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	74.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	72.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗