KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

63%

31%

11%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.0¢Risks 42.05u

EPSNO 58.0¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · EPS −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	55.8%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	0.0%	50.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	57.7%	0.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	28.5%	19.4%	21.0%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	40.2%	44.7%	17.4%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	43.6%	33.7%	8.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	33.0%	28.6%	10.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	22.0%	50.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	62.9%	42.2%	15.1%	55.2%	26.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	55.4%	—	—	24.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	78.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	63%	78.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗