KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

63%

31%

11%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.0¢Risks 42.05u

EPSNO 58.0¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · EPS −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:50+00:00	65.8%	11.0%	68.1%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	65.8%	10.8%	68.1%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	65.8%	10.8%	68.1%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	65.8%	10.8%	67.4%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	65.8%	10.8%	67.4%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	65.8%	10.8%	67.4%	23.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	67.4%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	67.4%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	67.4%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	67.4%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	67.4%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	65.1%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	66.5%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	66.5%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	66.5%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	66.5%	10.8%	73.3%	30.9%	63.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	78.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	63%	78.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗