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KDSM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
67%
ICON
57%
EPS
54%
WN2
48%
HRES
23%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u
VS
HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.15u · HRES −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 97.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 69.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:007.9%———5.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0013.7%———52.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0037.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0030.1%———36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0082.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.1%———41.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0094.8%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0018.6%———44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0017.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———50.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:008.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0083.2%———53.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0028.8%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0046.3%———57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0081.8%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0069.4%———69.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0085.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0041.3%———65.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0097.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0096.8%———66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0096.5%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0094.5%—67.0%—77.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0073.0%—76.8%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0088.2%———74.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0029.4%—10.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0079.8%—4.2%—51.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0029.8%—26.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0085.9%—6.7%—64.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0024.2%—0.4%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0038.0%31.8%0.8%97.6%30.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.3%—0.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single67%63.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON57%62.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%61.4°F8.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%61.0°F11.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%60.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%55.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261027-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗