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KDSM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
67%
ICON
57%
EPS
54%
WN2
48%
HRES
23%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u
VS
HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.15u · HRES −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS HRES: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00ICON: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:0066.8%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0066.8%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0066.8%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0066.8%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0066.9%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0066.9%54.1%48.4%22.8%57.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single67%63.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON57%62.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%61.4°F8.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%61.0°F11.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%60.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%55.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261027-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗