KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

82%

69%

66%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.2¢Risks 80.25u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.75u · ICON −19.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	64.4%	28.6%	49.3%	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	81.1%	50.0%	67.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	45.4%	56.8%	69.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	86.9%	68.4%	72.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	4.7%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	83.8%	79.9%	67.0%	—	64.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	60.2%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	76.6%	81.0%	69.3%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	72.1%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	67.0%	76.3%	70.3%	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	61.2%	80.4%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	59.6%	79.0%	69.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	65.6%	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	67.0%	86.1%	78.1%	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	58.4%	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	67.9%	76.2%	76.2%	—	72.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	60.0%	71.4%	0.0%	—	75.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	55.8%	83.2%	74.0%	—	74.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	61.9%	84.0%	71.7%	—	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	55.0%	87.0%	70.2%	27.6%	71.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	50.0%	87.2%	66.3%	—	70.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	50.0%	89.9%	61.9%	27.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	62.3%	89.6%	62.3%	—	71.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	68.2%	93.7%	66.9%	69.5%	78.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	67.5%	95.6%	48.5%	—	61.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	63.9%	96.3%	45.3%	73.7%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	91.4%	98.3%	71.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0030
AIFS Single	88%	64.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0156
IFS HRES	82%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0324
IFS Ensemble	69%	60.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0955
ICON	66%	61.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1156
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗