KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

82%

69%

66%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.2¢Risks 80.25u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.75u · ICON −19.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:19+00:00	88.6%	72.7%	90.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	90.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	94.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	94.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	94.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	94.5%	71.9%	88.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	86.3%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	87.5%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	87.5%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	87.5%	69.1%	94.5%	82.0%	66.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0030
AIFS Single	88%	64.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0156
IFS HRES	82%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0324
IFS Ensemble	69%	60.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0955
ICON	66%	61.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1156
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗