KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

72%

61%

53%

46%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.30u · EPS −36.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	41.6%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	10.2%	72.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	25.2%	69.5%	13.0%	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	21.0%	62.9%	49.3%	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	40.9%	28.9%	32.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	52.4%	58.7%	30.9%	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	1.0%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	36.1%	68.5%	36.9%	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	18.4%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	45.6%	65.4%	38.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	18.4%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	32.2%	73.4%	33.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	22.5%	56.8%	36.6%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	31.7%	55.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	28.5%	64.1%	34.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	35.5%	64.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	22.1%	68.9%	33.1%	0.0%	36.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	27.6%	69.5%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	26.0%	70.0%	28.9%	16.8%	31.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	35.9%	72.7%	30.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	40.1%	76.4%	29.8%	0.0%	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	37.3%	79.1%	24.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	33.1%	78.0%	21.0%	35.6%	28.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	80.9%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	61.4%	85.4%	30.5%	66.9%	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	71.5%	88.8%	26.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	57.9%	89.8%	25.0%	66.8%	37.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	75.9%	94.2%	56.6%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0335
AIFS Single	72%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	61%	66.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1505
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
ICON	53%	65.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2228
IFS Ensemble	46%	64.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2948

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗