KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

72%

61%

53%

46%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.30u · EPS −36.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:25+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	81.7%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	81.7%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	81.7%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	81.7%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	81.7%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	65.3%	45.8%	72.1%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	72.1%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	72.1%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	68.5%	50.0%	72.1%	32.4%	38.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	68.5%	50.0%	72.0%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:19+00:00	68.5%	50.0%	72.0%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	72.0%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	80.1%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	80.1%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	80.1%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	80.1%	32.4%	38.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	80.1%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	80.1%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	80.1%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	80.1%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	60.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	71.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	71.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	71.5%	45.7%	81.7%	61.2%	52.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0335
AIFS Single	72%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	61%	66.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1505
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
ICON	53%	65.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2228
IFS Ensemble	46%	64.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2948

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗