KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

83%

51%

47%

30%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

ICONNO 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.55u · ICON −41.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	8.2%	63.3%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	56.3%	57.7%	30.5%	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	27.2%	38.5%	29.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	47.7%	31.6%	48.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	48.4%	51.6%	46.8%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	2.9%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	21.9%	40.1%	43.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	12.3%	54.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	22.8%	56.1%	35.4%	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	14.0%	51.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	6.6%	52.8%	15.4%	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	10.4%	50.9%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	17.7%	51.0%	14.7%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	25.7%	60.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	19.0%	54.1%	5.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	31.6%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	39.2%	60.8%	5.3%	—	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	42.2%	59.0%	0.2%	—	24.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	32.0%	62.6%	12.7%	0.0%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	39.3%	69.6%	16.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	42.6%	73.4%	20.8%	65.8%	29.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	72.0%	17.4%	—	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	69.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	65.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗