KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

83%

51%

47%

30%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

ICONNO 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.55u · ICON −41.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	85.8%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	85.8%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	87.6%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	87.6%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	87.6%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	79.8%	48.6%	87.6%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	87.6%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	87.6%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	87.6%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	87.6%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	80.8%	48.6%	83.2%	59.6%	67.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	67.2%	36.9%	79.7%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	67.2%	31.6%	79.7%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	67.2%	31.6%	79.7%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	67.2%	31.6%	75.3%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	67.2%	31.6%	75.3%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	67.2%	31.6%	75.3%	44.6%	21.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	75.3%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	75.3%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	75.3%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	75.3%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	75.3%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	62.0%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	77.1%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	76.2%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	76.2%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	62.8%	31.6%	76.2%	37.7%	24.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	63.5%	31.6%	76.2%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	63.5%	31.6%	76.2%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	63.5%	31.6%	76.2%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	63.5%	31.6%	76.2%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	63.5%	31.6%	76.2%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	63.5%	36.8%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	63.5%	36.8%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	63.5%	36.8%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	61.6%	36.8%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	61.7%	36.8%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	81.7%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	77.1%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	79.0%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	74.8%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	82.7%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	82.7%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	82.7%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	82.7%	37.9%	86.4%	42.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	82.7%	51.2%	86.4%	46.8%	30.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	69.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	65.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗