KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

79%

66%

58%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.5¢Risks 76.55u

HRESNO 23.5¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · HRES −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	28.9%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	8.8%	56.1%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	73.1%	69.5%	34.9%	—	50.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	47.1%	70.9%	39.9%	—	46.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	43.9%	60.6%	48.5%	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	26.1%	81.6%	54.8%	—	46.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	1.6%	72.4%	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	23.2%	79.3%	50.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	26.0%	68.9%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	27.7%	70.9%	37.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	34.2%	89.6%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	29.7%	85.1%	28.2%	—	37.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	65.7%	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	67.0%	87.9%	51.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	67.4%	83.6%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	71.5%	86.6%	49.0%	—	34.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	78.0%	88.4%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	65.9%	89.1%	58.7%	91.5%	48.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	88.8%	0.9%	—	40.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	89.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	72.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	71.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	72.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	65.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗