KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

79%

66%

58%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.5¢Risks 76.55u

HRESNO 23.5¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.45u · HRES −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	95.9%	74.2%	93.3%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	95.9%	68.7%	93.3%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	95.9%	68.7%	93.3%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	96.2%	68.7%	93.0%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	96.2%	68.7%	93.0%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	93.0%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	93.0%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	96.5%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	96.5%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	96.5%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	96.5%	50.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	96.5%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	96.5%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	96.5%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	96.5%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	90.3%	66.3%	95.1%	58.0%	79.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	72.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	71.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	72.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	65.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗