KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

70%

52%

42%

42%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	4.6%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	7.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	2.2%	56.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	12.2%	74.3%	29.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	21.0%	57.3%	40.6%	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	1.8%	64.2%	8.7%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	60.8%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	10.0%	61.0%	11.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	1.2%	46.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	17.3%	54.2%	14.8%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	7.0%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	8.6%	50.9%	2.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	7.1%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	3.9%	58.2%	2.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	9.2%	46.2%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	3.4%	48.0%	9.4%	44.2%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	44.0%	—	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	66.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	64.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	65.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗