KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

70%

52%

42%

42%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	76.4%	44.2%	85.6%	36.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	76.2%	44.2%	85.5%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	85.5%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	85.5%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	85.5%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	76.2%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	23.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	42.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	42.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	42.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	80.6%	36.7%	42.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	80.6%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	70.5%	41.8%	73.5%	51.9%	42.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	66.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	64.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	65.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗