KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

35%

16%

14%

10%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

ICONNO 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +74.80u · ICON −74.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	3.9%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.9%	43.3%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	6.5%	61.8%	18.4%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	12.0%	42.7%	27.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	0.6%	49.2%	4.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	45.3%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	4.7%	45.2%	5.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	31.2%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.7%	37.7%	7.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	2.8%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	3.6%	33.8%	0.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	2.8%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	1.3%	40.0%	0.9%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	3.6%	28.4%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.0%	29.6%	3.5%	26.3%	1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	25.7%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	33.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	67.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	66.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	61.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	59.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗