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KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
41%
AIFS
35%
EPS
16%
HRES
14%
ICON
10%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 25.2¢Risks 25.20u
VS
ICONNO 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +74.80u · ICON −74.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS HRES: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:0050.7%15.9%48.3%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0050.7%15.9%48.3%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0050.7%15.9%45.7%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:0050.7%15.9%45.7%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:0050.7%15.9%45.7%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:0050.7%15.9%45.7%19.0%35.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:0047.8%15.9%45.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0047.8%15.9%45.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0047.8%15.9%45.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0047.8%15.9%45.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0047.8%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:0047.8%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0047.8%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:0047.8%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:0034.9%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0034.9%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0034.9%15.9%40.7%14.4%9.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%69.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend44%68.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%67.4°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single35%66.4°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble16%65.0°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%61.5°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON10%59.2°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗