KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

67%

31%

18%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

ICONNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.35u · ICON −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	33.5%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	82.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	0.9%	25.4%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	56.3%	89.8%	13.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	44.2%	81.1%	35.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	40.2%	84.0%	35.8%	—	20.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	73.9%	84.1%	44.4%	62.5%	43.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	84.7%	—	—	42.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	70.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	64.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	60.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	57.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗