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KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
78%
AIFS
67%
EPS
31%
HRES
18%
ICON
18%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u
VS
ICONNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.35u · ICON −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:0067.4%31.3%77.8%17.6%17.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:0067.4%31.3%77.8%17.6%17.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0067.4%31.3%77.8%17.6%17.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0067.4%31.3%77.8%17.6%17.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 278%70.7°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single67%69.1°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%64.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES18%60.5°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON18%57.2°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗