KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

60%

47%

46%

22%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

ICONNO 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.80u · ICON −56.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	36.6%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	1.7%	60.7%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	82.5%	46.5%	20.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	49.3%	88.7%	35.7%	74.6%	31.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	84.4%	—	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	68.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	66.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	58.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗