WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
65%
HRES
60%
AIFS
47%
EPS
46%
ICON
22%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 43.2¢Risks 43.20u
VS
ICONNO 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.80u · ICON −56.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:0047.2%46.4%64.9%60.4%21.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0047.2%46.4%64.9%60.4%21.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0047.2%46.4%64.9%60.4%21.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0047.2%46.4%64.9%60.4%21.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:0047.2%46.4%64.9%60.4%21.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 265%68.6°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES60%68.2°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend54%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single47%66.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%66.1°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON22%58.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗