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KDTW / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
WN2
81%
AIFS
67%
ICON
60%
HRES
59%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.6¢Risks 70.65u
VS
HRESNO 29.4¢Risks 29.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.35u · HRES −29.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 92.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 92.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:007.3%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0015.6%———20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0043.6%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0030.1%———56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0069.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0054.2%———52.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0052.1%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0068.4%———45.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0055.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0016.5%———54.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0024.4%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0091.1%———55.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0079.2%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0092.1%———60.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0062.5%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0073.0%———63.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0079.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0081.5%———67.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0075.6%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0086.2%———66.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0097.3%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0088.7%———60.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0088.2%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0052.3%—69.2%—67.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0044.6%—64.6%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0029.2%———61.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0016.1%—49.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0017.6%—95.4%—53.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0012.8%—93.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0046.1%—38.4%—57.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—46.0%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0039.3%35.5%92.0%90.1%41.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0014.2%—92.4%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%64.2°F6.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%62.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single67%61.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON60%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%59.9°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%59.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261027-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗