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KDTW / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
WN2
81%
AIFS
67%
ICON
60%
HRES
59%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.6¢Risks 70.65u
VS
HRESNO 29.4¢Risks 29.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.35u · HRES −29.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:0066.8%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0066.8%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0066.8%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0066.8%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0066.9%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0066.9%82.7%80.6%58.6%59.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%64.2°F6.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%62.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single67%61.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON60%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%59.9°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%59.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261027-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗