KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

17%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.0¢Risks 4.52u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.48u · EPS −45.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	9.6%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	7.5%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	2.8%	5.9%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	1.1%	7.7%	68.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	2.5%	29.7%	—	26.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	27.0%	17.9%	63.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	24.8%	22.4%	6.2%	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	25.0%	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	18.4%	18.9%	25.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	12.3%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	0.9%	28.4%	37.9%	—	47.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	16.1%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	0.1%	0.4%	31.4%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	0.0%	0.1%	2.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.1%	1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	0.0%	0.8%	1.8%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	0.0%	0.1%	2.2%	—	3.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	0.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.0%	3.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	10.5%	23.6%	22.4%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	83.9%	82.9%	96.3%	99.2%	97.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	80.8%	85.9%	95.5%	—	96.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7534
NWS forecast	76%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.5806
AIFS Single	18%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	17%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0282
IFS HRES	8%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗