KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

17%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.0¢Risks 4.52u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.48u · EPS −45.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:28+00:00	25.8%	10.1%	37.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	25.8%	10.1%	37.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	25.8%	10.1%	37.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	25.8%	10.1%	37.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	25.8%	6.6%	14.8%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	25.8%	6.6%	14.8%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	25.8%	6.6%	14.8%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	25.8%	6.6%	14.8%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	18.6%	6.6%	14.7%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	14.7%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	14.7%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	14.7%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	18.6%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:50+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	8.5%	30.9%	0.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	8.5%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	29.3%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:25+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:04+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	7.8%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	7.8%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	7.8%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	7.8%	6.4%	12.4%	28.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:02+00:00	7.8%	6.4%	12.4%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	7.8%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	7.8%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	7.8%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.7%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.7%	0.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.3%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	15.6%	0.0%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	13.6%	4.8%	0.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	13.6%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	16.2%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	11.5%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	16.8%	8.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	16.8%	8.1%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7534
NWS forecast	76%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.5806
AIFS Single	18%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	17%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0282
IFS HRES	8%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗