KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

78%

68%

61%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.6¢Risks 78.60u

ICONNO 21.4¢Risks 21.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.40u · ICON −21.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	45.8%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	86.8%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	55.2%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	70.8%	19.9%	19.9%	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	80.1%	42.7%	50.0%	—	53.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	53.0%	46.2%	46.9%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	87.3%	60.3%	69.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	8.2%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	91.6%	84.8%	57.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	78.6%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	77.9%	89.1%	37.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	57.1%	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	51.8%	85.6%	30.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	59.4%	82.9%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	68.7%	86.9%	27.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	56.0%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	74.1%	81.7%	37.8%	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	68.4%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	72.7%	63.9%	44.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	73.3%	64.3%	0.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	72.0%	69.0%	40.8%	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	72.7%	78.4%	44.0%	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	76.4%	80.9%	40.1%	20.8%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	75.2%	84.2%	39.8%	—	56.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	78.0%	89.9%	60.6%	35.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	72.4%	88.9%	61.0%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	81.8%	96.3%	64.2%	50.0%	58.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	78.7%	94.4%	50.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	80.8%	94.3%	42.1%	43.7%	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	88.5%	95.9%	63.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	61.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	92%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	78%	59.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0475
IFS HRES	68%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1050
ICON	61%	57.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1505
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗