KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

78%

68%

61%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.6¢Risks 78.60u

ICONNO 21.4¢Risks 21.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.40u · ICON −21.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:31+00:00	23.6%	82.2%	79.1%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	23.6%	82.2%	79.1%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	23.6%	82.2%	79.1%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	23.6%	82.2%	79.1%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:28+00:00	23.6%	82.2%	79.1%	83.2%	—
2026-10-12T15:26:29+00:00	80.2%	72.6%	90.9%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	80.2%	69.1%	90.9%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	80.2%	69.1%	93.4%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	80.2%	69.1%	93.4%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	80.2%	69.1%	93.4%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	80.2%	69.1%	93.4%	86.0%	87.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	93.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	93.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	93.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	93.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	88.6%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	91.5%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	91.5%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	91.5%	69.1%	95.4%	74.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	74.8%	71.3%	89.3%	66.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	74.8%	71.3%	89.3%	65.9%	92.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	74.8%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	92.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	74.8%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	92.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	74.8%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	92.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	94.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	94.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	94.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:50+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	90.1%	65.9%	94.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	90.1%	60.1%	94.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	91.3%	60.3%	94.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	91.3%	60.3%	94.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	91.3%	60.3%	94.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	59.6%	71.3%	91.3%	60.3%	94.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	59.6%	71.3%	91.3%	60.3%	94.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	82.5%	49.0%	94.4%	36.7%	65.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	82.5%	49.0%	94.4%	36.7%	65.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	82.5%	49.0%	97.4%	36.7%	65.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	82.5%	49.0%	97.4%	36.7%	65.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	82.5%	49.0%	97.4%	36.7%	65.3%
2026-10-15T07:48:49+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.4%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.4%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.4%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.4%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.4%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	84.2%	54.8%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	84.2%	54.8%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	91.6%	54.7%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	91.6%	54.7%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:33+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	97.5%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	99.1%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	99.1%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	99.1%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	91.6%	57.8%	99.1%	35.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	99.1%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	99.1%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	99.1%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	99.1%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	88.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	85.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	85.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	85.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	85.3%	57.8%	98.0%	53.6%	79.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	94.7%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	94.7%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	94.7%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	90.4%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	68.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	68.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	68.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	98.3%	52.9%	68.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	98.3%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	88.1%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	96.9%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	98.1%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	98.1%	63.4%	68.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00	90.6%	50.0%	98.1%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	90.6%	50.0%	98.1%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	90.6%	50.0%	98.1%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	90.6%	50.0%	98.1%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	90.6%	50.0%	98.1%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	90.6%	76.4%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	90.6%	76.4%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	90.6%	76.4%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	90.6%	76.4%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	91.5%	76.0%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	97.9%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	98.0%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	98.0%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	98.0%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	91.5%	78.2%	98.0%	65.7%	61.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	98.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	98.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	98.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	98.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	87.8%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	91.9%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	91.9%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	91.9%	78.2%	96.0%	67.6%	61.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	61.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	92%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	78%	59.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0475
IFS HRES	68%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1050
ICON	61%	57.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1505
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗