KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

94%

94%

91%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.5¢Risks 23.86u

HRESNO 4.5¢Risks 1.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.14u · HRES −1.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	41.3%	83.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	16.6%	79.6%	23.5%	—	65.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	96.5%	82.5%	91.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	97.6%	92.7%	90.0%	—	69.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	95.5%	95.2%	46.0%	—	60.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	14.4%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	80.5%	93.9%	31.5%	—	45.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	82.2%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	86.4%	94.1%	17.8%	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	91.5%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	85.6%	86.1%	61.8%	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	87.8%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	95.1%	72.1%	72.1%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	94.6%	13.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	94.8%	74.9%	81.0%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	96.9%	85.6%	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	94.1%	91.0%	91.5%	0.0%	85.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	87.1%	94.3%	6.7%	—	88.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	85.3%	91.5%	97.1%	70.0%	88.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	96.9%	95.5%	97.1%	—	84.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	93.7%	94.5%	96.7%	0.0%	90.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	92.8%	97.8%	94.7%	—	83.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	93.0%	98.8%	93.9%	86.6%	92.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	97.0%	98.8%	96.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.1%	99.1%	96.5%	97.9%	92.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	95.6%	99.3%	90.8%	—	87.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	96.9%	99.6%	95.2%	99.1%	93.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	99.7%	99.9%	98.9%	—	96.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	94%	64.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0038
ICON	94%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0041
IFS HRES	91%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
National Blend	86%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0199
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗