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KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
98%
EPS
94%
ICON
94%
HRES
91%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 95.5¢Risks 23.86u
VS
HRESNO 4.5¢Risks 1.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.14u · HRES −1.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 91.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:0096.9%55.7%99.8%86.4%96.1%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:0096.9%55.7%99.8%86.4%96.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0096.9%55.7%99.9%86.4%96.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0096.9%55.7%99.9%86.4%96.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:0097.5%55.7%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0097.5%55.7%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:0097.5%55.7%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0097.5%55.7%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0097.5%55.7%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:0097.5%94.2%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0097.5%94.2%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0097.5%94.2%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:0097.5%94.2%99.9%91.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0098.4%93.8%99.9%91.0%93.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%68.4°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0000
AIFS Single98%67.2°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0003
IFS Ensemble94%64.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.0038
ICON94%63.9°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0041
IFS HRES91%64.0°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0081
National Blend86%62.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.0199
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗