KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

69%

66%

48%

47%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.50u · ICON −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	38.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	18.4%	62.0%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	4.7%	54.9%	7.7%	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	86.1%	58.0%	72.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	88.6%	75.5%	69.7%	—	40.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	81.6%	80.5%	18.4%	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	3.0%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	50.8%	76.2%	9.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	52.6%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	58.7%	75.2%	3.6%	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	68.2%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	55.5%	56.4%	26.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	58.5%	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	75.3%	34.8%	34.8%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	72.6%	1.7%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	72.4%	35.9%	43.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	78.7%	50.0%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	67.9%	59.7%	60.8%	0.0%	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	50.0%	67.5%	0.4%	—	52.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	45.4%	58.1%	76.7%	26.0%	51.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	74.7%	68.5%	75.6%	—	41.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	61.1%	63.4%	72.4%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	56.4%	76.2%	62.7%	—	37.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	55.4%	81.8%	58.0%	40.7%	52.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	68.8%	80.9%	66.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	66.9%	81.8%	64.2%	72.0%	48.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	57.5%	82.8%	42.5%	—	35.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	60.9%	85.8%	53.2%	78.6%	46.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.0%	94.2%	73.3%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	67.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0392
IFS HRES	69%	65.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0973
AIFS Single	66%	64.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1156
National Blend	54%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2153
IFS Ensemble	48%	62.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2725
ICON	47%	61.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2830

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗