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KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
80%
HRES
69%
AIFS
66%
EPS
48%
ICON
47%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u
VS
ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.50u · ICON −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 68.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00IFS HRES: 68.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00IFS HRES: 68.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00IFS HRES: 68.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:0066.0%47.8%80.2%68.8%46.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:0066.0%47.8%80.2%68.8%46.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:0066.0%47.8%80.2%68.8%46.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:0066.0%47.8%80.2%68.8%46.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0066.0%47.8%80.2%68.8%46.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 280%67.0°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.0392
IFS HRES69%65.6°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.0973
AIFS Single66%64.8°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.1156
National Blend54%63.0°F5.5°F2026-10-12 00:000.2153
IFS Ensemble48%62.2°F5.4°F2026-10-11 00:000.2725
ICON47%61.7°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.2830

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗