KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

60%

58%

30%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	32.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	14.3%	55.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	3.2%	47.9%	5.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	81.6%	50.7%	66.3%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	84.5%	69.1%	62.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	75.8%	74.5%	13.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	1.8%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	42.5%	69.2%	6.3%	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	44.0%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	50.0%	67.8%	2.2%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	59.8%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	46.3%	47.2%	19.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	49.0%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	67.0%	26.3%	26.3%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	63.7%	0.9%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	63.1%	26.8%	34.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	70.2%	39.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	57.6%	48.9%	50.0%	0.0%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	38.9%	56.7%	0.2%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	34.1%	46.5%	66.9%	17.5%	39.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	64.1%	57.2%	65.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	48.8%	51.2%	61.1%	0.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	43.6%	65.1%	50.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	42.0%	71.6%	44.6%	28.4%	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	55.6%	70.0%	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	52.9%	70.7%	50.0%	58.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗