KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

60%

58%

30%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:18+00:00	59.2%	40.5%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	59.2%	45.8%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	59.2%	45.8%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	68.5%	45.8%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	68.5%	45.8%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:29+00:00	68.5%	45.8%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	68.5%	42.5%	42.0%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	68.5%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	68.5%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	68.5%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	68.5%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	42.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	66.4%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	65.2%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:11+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.7%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.1%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.1%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.1%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	71.5%	42.5%	80.1%	63.0%	27.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00	66.8%	42.5%	80.1%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	66.8%	42.5%	80.1%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	66.8%	42.5%	80.1%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	66.8%	42.5%	80.1%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	66.8%	38.7%	79.7%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	66.8%	38.7%	79.7%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	66.8%	38.7%	79.7%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	66.8%	38.7%	79.7%	54.2%	88.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	67.5%	38.7%	79.7%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	67.5%	39.5%	79.7%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	67.5%	39.4%	79.7%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	67.5%	39.4%	79.7%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	67.5%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	67.5%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	67.5%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	88.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	89.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	89.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	89.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:50+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	82.0%	54.2%	89.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	82.0%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	73.3%	39.7%	90.8%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	73.3%	39.7%	90.8%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	73.3%	39.7%	90.8%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	64.7%	39.7%	90.8%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	64.7%	39.7%	90.8%	50.6%	89.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	66.4%	37.2%	68.7%	32.6%	61.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	66.4%	37.2%	68.7%	32.6%	61.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	66.4%	37.2%	86.8%	32.6%	61.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	66.4%	37.2%	86.8%	32.6%	61.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	66.4%	37.2%	86.8%	32.6%	61.3%
2026-10-15T07:48:49+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	86.8%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	86.8%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	86.8%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	86.8%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	86.8%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	50.9%	37.2%	81.2%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	50.9%	39.2%	81.2%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	50.9%	39.2%	81.2%	21.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	77.7%	39.3%	81.2%	21.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	77.7%	39.3%	81.2%	21.8%	63.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	63.6%	40.5%	83.3%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	63.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	63.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	63.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	60.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	54.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	54.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	54.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	54.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	54.6%	40.5%	87.6%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	54.6%	15.0%	78.0%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	54.6%	15.0%	78.0%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	54.6%	15.0%	78.0%	32.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	63.7%	15.0%	78.0%	13.6%	73.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	63.7%	15.1%	78.0%	13.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	74.5%	62.3%	90.4%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00	74.5%	57.8%	90.4%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	74.5%	57.8%	90.4%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	74.5%	57.8%	88.5%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	74.5%	57.8%	88.5%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	74.5%	57.8%	88.5%	56.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	88.5%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	88.5%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	88.5%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	88.5%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	88.5%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	79.2%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	82.6%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	82.6%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	82.6%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	82.6%	57.8%	89.8%	59.6%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗