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KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
30%
WN2
6%
HRES
4%
AIFS
3%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 15.8¢Risks 15.80u
VS
EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.20u · EPS −84.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:002.3%————0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.8%————6.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.2%————4.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.1%————5.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:007.1%————2.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:004.4%————2.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:009.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0045.8%————2.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0020.4%————2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0020.7%————2.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.4%————1.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.4%————2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:005.0%—0.0%——2.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.3%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:003.4%————1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.5%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.8%—0.8%——1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.0%—3.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%2.9%——0.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.3%—2.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%1.5%0.0%—0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.3%—1.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.8%9.6%1.5%3.8%—0.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.7%—7.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.0%10.0%3.6%2.4%—0.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—5.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.8%4.5%4.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%3.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%2.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%1.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%1.5%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.4%0.7%1.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON30%71.9°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0924
WeatherNext 26%67.7°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0034
IFS HRES4%64.2°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0018
AIFS Single3%65.8°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0012
NWS forecast2%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0006
IFS Ensemble1%62.4°F5.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.0001
National Blend<1%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗