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KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
30%
WN2
6%
HRES
4%
AIFS
3%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 15.8¢Risks 15.80u
VS
EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.20u · EPS −84.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0010-13 08:0210-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:003.4%1.2%5.8%4.2%30.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:003.4%1.2%5.8%4.2%30.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:003.4%1.2%5.8%4.2%30.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:003.4%1.2%5.8%4.2%30.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON30%71.9°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0924
WeatherNext 26%67.7°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0034
IFS HRES4%64.2°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0018
AIFS Single3%65.8°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0012
NWS forecast2%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0006
IFS Ensemble1%62.4°F5.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.0001
National Blend<1%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗