KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

88%

80%

75%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.3¢Risks 87.30u

HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.70u · HRES −12.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	74.6%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	66.4%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	38.7%	83.3%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	82.5%	87.0%	38.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	90.4%	76.8%	58.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	88.2%	80.5%	27.7%	—	47.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	82.6%	83.7%	45.2%	—	52.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	24.3%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	90.3%	74.2%	69.2%	—	55.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	82.2%	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	88.2%	83.3%	86.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	83.9%	70.6%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	91.0%	83.4%	87.6%	—	68.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	85.7%	81.0%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	73.7%	77.5%	74.5%	—	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	78.1%	78.1%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	58.2%	78.8%	67.9%	0.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	78.0%	58.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	89.1%	80.2%	74.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	85.9%	83.9%	5.1%	—	53.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	84.0%	84.7%	62.6%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	89.2%	92.6%	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	92.0%	87.6%	79.2%	83.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	93.6%	90.2%	80.9%	—	60.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	90.5%	91.1%	74.9%	84.3%	58.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	96.0%	94.6%	84.5%	—	70.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	97.7%	96.8%	92.2%	96.8%	75.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	97.8%	83.8%	—	68.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	72.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	72.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	66.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	80%	66.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	66.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗