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KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
98%
EPS
88%
ICON
80%
HRES
75%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 87.3¢Risks 87.30u
VS
HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.70u · HRES −12.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00ICON: 79.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%80.0%93.9%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%80.0%93.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%80.0%93.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%80.0%93.9%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0097.9%51.6%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:0097.9%87.9%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0097.9%87.9%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0097.9%87.9%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:0097.9%87.9%99.7%74.9%79.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0098.0%87.5%99.7%74.9%79.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%72.8°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single98%72.3°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble88%66.9°F3.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend85%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON80%66.8°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES75%66.5°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%64.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗