KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

31%

23%

22%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

EPSNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · EPS −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	34.8%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	12.8%	54.7%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	52.1%	59.7%	12.2%	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	65.0%	42.7%	23.7%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	59.1%	46.2%	6.0%	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	47.6%	49.2%	13.1%	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	4.3%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	59.9%	34.5%	29.3%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	44.0%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	53.5%	44.8%	50.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	44.6%	27.9%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	57.3%	42.7%	50.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	45.3%	37.9%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	27.9%	32.1%	28.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	31.7%	31.7%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	13.9%	31.2%	20.4%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	28.8%	13.2%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	44.5%	30.1%	23.8%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	36.7%	33.6%	0.1%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	32.0%	33.1%	12.7%	0.0%	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	39.3%	47.6%	19.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	43.8%	34.2%	22.7%	27.6%	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	46.1%	37.3%	22.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	35.6%	36.8%	15.7%	25.1%	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	50.0%	44.4%	23.2%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	57.2%	51.4%	34.5%	51.4%	13.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	54.5%	18.1%	—	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	71.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	69.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	31%	66.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗