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KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
86%
ICON
31%
HRES
23%
EPS
22%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u
VS
EPSNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · EPS −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:00ICON: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00ICON: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0010-20 04:0310-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:03:23+00:0083.3%22.5%79.5%23.3%25.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:0083.3%22.5%79.5%23.3%25.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0083.3%22.5%85.7%23.3%25.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0083.3%22.5%85.7%23.3%25.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0083.3%22.5%85.7%23.3%25.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0090.4%22.5%85.7%23.3%31.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0090.4%22.5%85.7%23.3%31.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:0090.4%22.5%85.7%23.3%31.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0090.4%22.5%85.7%23.3%31.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%72.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%71.6°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend67%69.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON31%66.8°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%65.8°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%65.9°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗