KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 05:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

28%

18%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.25u · EPS −83.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	11.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.0%	14.3%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	11.9%	16.2%	0.8%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	18.4%	7.1%	2.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	13.4%	7.6%	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.2%	7.8%	0.6%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.1%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.2%	3.1%	2.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.9%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.3%	4.7%	6.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	4.3%	1.5%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	7.6%	3.6%	5.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	1.1%	1.5%	1.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	1.3%	1.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.8%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.0%	0.7%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	1.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	32%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	72.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	18%	71.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	67.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	63.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗