KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 05:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

28%

18%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.25u · EPS −83.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:30+00:00	26.1%	1.0%	30.0%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	26.1%	1.0%	30.0%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	26.1%	1.0%	30.0%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	26.1%	1.0%	30.0%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:07+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	25.5%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	25.5%	0.3%	34.4%	12.2%	17.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	35.1%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	35.1%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	35.1%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T21:42:51+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	35.1%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	35.1%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	32.2%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:26+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:04+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	41.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	42.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	42.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	42.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	43.6%	12.8%	42.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:03+00:00	22.5%	0.3%	43.6%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	22.5%	0.1%	17.4%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	22.5%	0.1%	17.4%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	22.5%	0.1%	17.4%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	17.4%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	17.8%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	17.8%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	17.8%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	17.8%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	8.5%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	8.5%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	8.5%	7.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	8.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	8.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	8.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	8.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	8.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	26.4%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:43+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	11.5%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	24.6%	0.1%	26.7%	5.9%	37.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	12.2%	0.9%	17.1%	5.7%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	12.2%	0.9%	17.1%	5.7%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	28.7%	0.9%	17.1%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	28.7%	0.9%	17.1%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:34+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	17.1%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	17.1%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	34.0%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	34.0%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	34.0%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	28.7%	1.0%	34.0%	5.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	12.2%	1.0%	34.0%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	12.2%	1.0%	34.0%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	12.2%	1.0%	34.0%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	12.2%	1.0%	34.0%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	12.2%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	18.4%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	19.9%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	30.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	8.2%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	8.2%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	8.2%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	8.2%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	8.2%	1.0%	13.2%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	8.2%	1.1%	10.8%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	8.2%	1.1%	10.8%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	8.2%	1.1%	10.8%	8.1%	15.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	10.8%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	10.8%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	10.8%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	10.8%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	10.8%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	21.6%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	17.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	30.5%	3.6%	17.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	30.5%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	27.8%	1.1%	32.4%	5.9%	17.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	32%	73.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	72.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	18%	71.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	67.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	63.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗