KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

58%

50%

28%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

HRESNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.00u · HRES −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	24.9%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	24.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	83.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	28.8%	63.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	54.2%	40.9%	10.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	33.0%	28.5%	23.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	54.6%	26.4%	56.8%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	46.0%	30.9%	49.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	9.5%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	31.5%	9.3%	39.3%	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	25.3%	17.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	12.7%	12.2%	18.4%	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	18.4%	22.9%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	6.6%	20.9%	8.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	13.7%	17.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	17.1%	21.0%	9.8%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.7%	21.9%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.8%	19.7%	5.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	16.9%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	14.9%	9.9%	7.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	4.2%	11.8%	0.1%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	10.5%	12.1%	1.0%	0.2%	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	12.6%	0.8%	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	14.4%	14.4%	2.8%	11.8%	2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	15.8%	2.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	12.0%	—	0.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗