KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

58%

50%

28%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

HRESNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.00u · HRES −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:03+00:00	91.2%	62.7%	89.6%	67.1%	54.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	91.2%	51.1%	86.5%	67.1%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	91.2%	51.1%	86.5%	67.1%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	91.2%	51.1%	86.5%	67.1%	54.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	83.2%	51.1%	86.5%	67.1%	54.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	83.2%	51.1%	86.4%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	86.4%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	86.4%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	86.4%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	77.6%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	77.6%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	83.2%	50.0%	77.6%	67.1%	55.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	77.6%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	77.6%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	77.6%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	77.6%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	77.6%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	58.5%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	58.5%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	58.5%	50.0%	67.7%	28.0%	70.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗