KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

26%

24%

16%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u

HRESNO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.95u · HRES −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	6.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	7.1%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	4.0%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	27.7%	29.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	78.1%	14.5%	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	7.6%	27.9%	35.0%	—	12.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	8.4%	40.9%	11.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	27.9%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	10.4%	20.6%	11.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	18.9%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.1%	18.4%	12.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.8%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	8.0%	12.2%	2.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	3.2%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	6.3%	8.3%	1.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	7.7%	8.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.2%	9.0%	2.9%	5.9%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	63.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	62.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	61.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	58.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗