KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

26%

24%

16%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u

HRESNO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.95u · HRES −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00	12.2%	27.4%	76.6%	18.5%	39.7%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	12.2%	27.4%	76.6%	18.5%	39.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	12.2%	27.4%	74.1%	18.5%	39.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	12.2%	27.4%	74.1%	18.5%	39.7%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00	17.3%	27.4%	74.1%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	17.3%	27.4%	74.1%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	17.3%	27.4%	74.1%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	17.3%	27.4%	74.1%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	17.3%	27.4%	74.1%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	17.3%	24.7%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	17.3%	24.7%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	17.3%	24.7%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	17.3%	24.7%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	31.5%	24.8%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	64.2%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	44.9%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	44.9%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	44.9%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	31.5%	25.8%	44.9%	14.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	29.0%	25.8%	44.9%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	29.0%	25.8%	44.9%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	29.0%	25.8%	44.9%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	29.0%	25.8%	44.9%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	29.0%	25.8%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	29.0%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	29.0%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	29.0%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	24.1%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	24.1%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	24.1%	25.7%	36.6%	15.5%	31.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	63.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	31%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	62.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	61.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	58.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗